There’s been a bit of a reshuffling of the pack since our last IPL preview, with the Wollongong United points deduction coming through, dropping them down to seventh in the ladder. United can still make the end-of-season Finals, but their job was made a whole lot harder by a crushing 6-0 defeat at Woonona in Round 20.

The other shock scoreline last week was the 6-1 win by Cringila Lions over relegation rivals Shell Cove, a result which surely determines which side will be propping up the ladder when the regular season ends in two weeks’ time.

Picton’s loss last week leaves the Finals door still slightly ajar for Port Kembla and Wollongong United. At the top, all four ladder leaders won in Round 20, so the races for the title and for third spot look like going to the wire. And third place Albion Park play a double-header this weekend with their Round 21 match on Saturday and a catch-up game Sunday.

Match of the round

Wollongong United v Kemblawarra Fury @ Macedonia Park – kick-off 2.30pm, Sunday 21 August

This repeat of 2015’s Grand Final comes at a crucial time for both clubs. Of course the Fury were playing under a different name last season, but most of their squad has stayed the same and they are still up there challenging for the Illawarra Mercury Premier League title again. United on the other hand have had the nine point deduction confirmed and go into this penultimate fixture of the regular season needing to win to keep any Finals hopes alive.

Fury’s leading scorer Robbie Shields was missing last week, but that didn’t stop them beating a well-organised South Coast United. That was the league leader’s fourth win on the trot, and they’ll be looking to make it five as they aim to stave off any challenge from Bulli for top spot.

An inferior goal difference means the Fury can’t afford to lose this tie. But for United, anything but victory would mean the end of their season. And United have a habit of holding sway over the Fury in big matches.

Last time these two met, it was all square at 1-1, but that scoreline wouldn’t suit either of them this time. A lot may hang on how many of the United first choice players are available. Key people like captain Brenda Reilly and Karouna Michael were missing for the 6-0 defeat at Woonona. With a full squad for United, this game might end in a draw, but otherwise I’m going for the Fury to repeat last season’s scoreline of a 2-1 win at Macedonia Park. Whatever happens, this is a crunch game.

Matches on Saturday 20 August

Bulli FC v Cringila Lions @ Balls Paddock – kick-off 2.30pm

Cringila may have saved themselves from the dreaded basement spot in the IPL ladder by their wonderful 6-1 win over Shell Cove last week, but the omens are not good for this fixture at Balls Paddock.

The Lions have lost the last seven times they have faced Bulli in the league, going down 5-0 at home earlier in the season, when Dylan Lewis and Julian Minutillo grabbed a brace apiece.

The other stat that doesn’t bode well for the visitors here is that Bulli are the highest scoring team in the League, up against the side with the leakiest defence this season.

Cringila couldn’t follow up their extraordinary win over Shell Cove when they took on Port Kembla last week, but confidence will be higher than it has been for a while at Crehan Park right now. Confidence just may not be enough, though, against a team that is scoring freely and wants to keep the pressure on the Fury for the title. This has to be a home win, meaning the title race will go down to the wire on Sunday 28 August.

Picton Rangers v Wollongong Olympic @ Hume Oval - kick-off 2.30pm

Fifth take on fourth in a match which could be a rehearsal for the first Finals fixture in two weeks’ time if positions stay the same.

Defences are likely to shine in a game that pits the IPL’s equal stingiest backline (Olympic) against a side that showed last week against the White Eagles how solidly it can get bodies behind the ball to keep even the most creative of forward lines out.

Picton may be up to fifth after the Wollongong United points deduction, but the Rangers’ results have not been great lately, with wins only against struggling sides. A victory here would guarantee a Finals berth for the IPL newcomers in their first season back at this level.

But Olympic are a tough side to beat. They may be sure of Finals football next month, but win here and they can still challenge for third spot in the ladder, giving them two bites at finals football.

0-0 was the score when the two sides met in Round 10, but I rather fancy Olympic to nick this one by a single goal. Watch for Yusuke Ueda to add to his tally of ten for the season for Olympic.

Port Kembla FC v Woonona FC @ Wetherall Park kick-off 2.30pm

Port Kembla’s win at Cringila last week leaves Stuart Beedie’s side with an outside chance of still making the Finals if Picton Rangers’ results don’t improve over the last two matches.

Confidence may be brimming at Wetherall Park these days, but Woonona too have reasons for optimism after their crushing 6-0 win over last season’s Grand Final champions Wollongong United last weekend.

The Sharks’ season started so brightly back in March, but then never really took off after that, and their wins in Rounds 19 and 20 were the first back-to-back victories the club has managed all season. There isn’t much to play for now for the visitors here, but if they can put together another couple of good results before the end of the regular season, it sets out a good base from which to build in 2017.

For Port, it has been an incredible turnaround, after starting with only one point from the first four matches. Peter Richardson scored in the reverse fixture in May and has led his team slowly up the ladder to a season-high of sixth.

I’m sure they’ll keep half an eye on what’s happening at Hume Oval this weekend, but their main focus will be to prevent Woonona going on another goal scoring spree this week. With a tough final fixture to come away at the Fury, Port know they must win this one. Port Kembla won the equivalent fixture in 2015 by 2-1, and I predict a similar scoreline this year.

Shell Cove FC v Tarrawanna Blueys @ Barrack Heights Sportsfield – kick-off 2.30pm

It’s been a miserable few weeks for both teams, so something has to get better for at least one of these two. Shell Cove have lost their last four matches, leaving them five points adrift at the foot of the table, and the Blueys have lost a staggering six on the bounce to leave their Finals hopes in tatters.

It is still mathematically possible for the Blueys to make the Finals, and Shell Cove can still clamber off the bottom rung of the ladder, so a lot could hang on psychology and morale going into the tie.

Kurdvan Abduljabbar got a consolation goal for Shell Cove in the 6-1 loss at Cringila, and he will always be a threat, especially with the return of key player from earlier in the season, Daniel Vellonio.

The Blueys need Rick Goodchild and Darren Stone to turn on some of the magic they were showing in the early rounds.

It’s hard to know which way this tie will go so I’m going to sit on the fence and call it a draw.

Albion Park White Eagles v South Coast United @ Terry Reserve – kick-off 3.00pm

The White Eagles look odds on to take third spot in this season’s ladder, but they’ll want the points here to ward off any late challenge from Wollongong Olympic in fourth.

Arguably South Coast have less to play for, having climbed clear of the bottom some weeks ago and notched up enough points to guarantee them a place in mid-table.

Vaughan Patterson leads from the back for the White Eagles, with Peter Prandalos proving a useful game maker moving forward up the left. But the three Japanese recruits continue to dazzle for Albion Park. Riku Iwauchi got himself on the scoresheet last week to beat Picton at the WIN, but Shohei Okuno remains the White Eagles’ top scorer this season.

For United, player-coach Greg Valic will hope to return for this one, and Liam Unicomb’s speed will always be a threat.

Home win here, though, is the likely outcome as Albion Park push to stay third.

Other match on Sunday 21 August

Round 19 catch up

Shell Cove FC v Albion Park White Eagles @ Barrack Heights Sportsfield kick off 2.30pm

Fitness will be key as both these sides play a double header to finalise the IPL catch-ups and leave every side with one final match to play next weekend for Round 22.

Squad depth could also be a factor, and Jeff Allport knows he has a lot more options up his sleeve than Paul Carter at Shell Cove, when he can turn to the likes of Jack Balmforth or Brian Montanari if there is any sign of tired legs up front.

The White Eagles won the return fixture 5-1, with Kotaro Higashi joining his two Japanese compatriots on the scoresheet that day. The scoreline could be similar this time round on current form, but I fancy Shell Cove to limit the goals – it’s got away win written all over this tie, but only by one or two.

 

By Simon Duffin

Photo courtesy of Pedro Garcia (library archive)