Eastern Mavericks (1-14, 10th) v Sturt Sabres (11-4, 2nd)
Saturday July 21, 8.15pm at Adelaide Hills

Fresh off their first W in almost a year, the Eastern Mavericks can play their part in shaping the final five with a home match against the Sturt Sabres in Round 16.

The Sabres are second on the ladder with the same win-loss record as Forestville and North. They were outright first prior to last weekend, but their 64-69 home loss to Norwood has knocked them off their perch. Tom Daly had 19 points in a losing effort, while Darren Ng scored 14.

The Mavericks’ first win of 2012 came at the expense of the South Adelaide Panthers, 84-69. Edward Millard was outstanding with 33 points and Shane Breheny scored 19. The Mavs will now be looking to reward their fans for their efforts by finally winning a game in the south-east.

Last time they met, an excellent all-round game from Daly led a balanced Sabres attack to an 82-56 victory. Daly had 12 assists, 11 points and 7 rebounds, while Klaosen had a team-high 15. Lukass Blicavs scored 14 for the Millard-less Mavericks.

Millard makes the Mavericks a more ominous proposition, but the Sabres have only lost once on the road in 2012 and should get the job done once more.

North Adelaide Rockets (11-4, 3rd) v Forestville Eagles (11-4, 1st)
Saturday July 21, 8.15pm at Hillcrest

The North Adelaide Rockets and Forestville Eagles will meet on Saturday in a match that could have a large bearing on if, where and who each team is playing come August 11.

It could also be a preview of the Qualifying Final on that very date.

The first-placed Eagles and third-placed Rockets are separated by percentage only on the ladder. The West Adelaide Bearcats (10-4) are only one game behind in fourth, so the loser of this game will have a tough fight on their hands to avoid an Elimination Final.

Both teams have the series split over the Bearcats after the Rockets pulled off an astonishing come-from-behind overtime victory in Round 15. The Rockets trailed 60-73 with 2.48 remaining, before scoring 14 points to 1 within the space of one minute, 54 seconds to tie the game at 74. In overtime, the Rockets outscored the Bearcats 10-7 for an 84-81 victory. It was the Rockets’ first win at Port Adelaide since June 29, 2008.

Brett Collins (31 points, 5 rebounds) scored 16 points in the final 7.48, while Pero Vasilijevic (20 rebounds, 17 points, 12 turnovers) made the equaliser towards the end of regulation.

The Eagles looked like they were heading for a big win over an undermanned Lions team, leading 30-13 at quarter-time. However, a lack of intensity over the best part of the next three quarters saw them trailing 55-60 late in the match, before some late heroics from Brad Haydon (19 points) and Rashad Tucker (16 points) earnt them an ugly 72-62 victory.

In Round 7, the Eagles maintained their intensity for four quarters and thrashed the Rockets 91-73. Trent Fildes (16 points), who did not play last week against the Lions, was one of five Eagles in double-figures, with Tucker adding 13 points and 17 rebounds. The Rockets actually had the three game-high scorers, including Brandon Brine (who likewise did not play in Round 15) with 20 points and 10 rebounds, but it mattered little.

This game should be a lot closer, although the Eagles’ extra depth in every position could be a factor, as it was last time.

South Adelaide Panthers (4-11, 9th) v Central District Lions (5-10, 8th)
Saturday July 21, 8.15pm at Marion

The South Adelaide Panthers and Central District Lions will be playing for pride in their Round 16 clash at Marion.

At different points in the season, these teams have looked like potential finals contenders, yet after 15 games they are both languished in the bottom three. The Panthers have lost nine straight, a streak that started with a loss to the Lions in Round 7. The Lions themselves have been winless in their last four outings.

In Round 15, the Panthers became the first team in 2012 to lose to the Eastern Mavericks, despite the best efforts of Jordan Robertson (22 points), Damian Scanlon (17 points) and Isaiah Omamogho (17 points). The Panthers have the worst record in the competition against the Mavericks and Southern Tigers over the last two seasons, despite those clubs’ combined record of 13-53 to this date.

The Lions put in a spirited effort against the league-leading Forestville Eagles, but did not have enough in the tank to achieve a remarkable comeback. Paul Joyce had a great game with 22 points, while Lachlan Parker scored 14 and Kyle Williams 13.

With seventh and eighth place up for grabs in the closing stages, it goes without saying that whoever wants to win more will win.

Norwood Flames (9-6, 5th) v Woodville Warriors (8-7, 6th)
Saturday July 21, 8.15pm at Mars

In the Match of the Round, the Norwood Flames can end the Woodville Warriors’ hopes of a first post-season appearance since 2005 if they can achieve victory at Mars.

Both sides have had their memorable moments this season. The Flames have beaten Forestville at Wayville and, most recently, Sturt at Pasadena in Round 15, in addition to an unbelievable comeback at home to Southern in Round 3. The Warriors have also beaten Forestville, along with North at Hillcrest.

However, each team has had the odd nightmare as well. The Flames will be keen to forget their 45 point loss to the Rockets in Round 2, as well as losses to South and Centrals, who sit in the bottom three.

The Warriors failed to beat the Flames when they were reeling and were without star import Brian Moultrie (22.9 ppg, 16.1 rpg), who has been arguably the recruit of the season and the true definition of a Most Valuable Player. Andrew Webber, who is averaging 15.7 ppg in his last three matches, was likewise not playing that night. Round 15 was as grim a round as could be for the Warriors, who were blown away 87-69 at home by Southern. This was a 49 point turnaround from the Warriors’ triumph at Morphett Vale in Round 6.

So with the lack of consistency from both sides, it is fitting that this match will likely decide who earns the final spot in the five. If the Warriors do win, then they have the more favourable draw over the last two weeks, with Eastern (home) and Sturt (away), whereas the Flames have top-five sides West (away) and Forestville (home). The fixture list will mean nothing if the Warriors lose, and after their 74-81 defeat in their last match against the Flames, the final margin in this game could also be critical.

In addition to Moultrie and Webber, Keith Krause (13.4 ppg, 7.1 rpg), Matthew Lycett (12.3 ppg, 8.1 rpg), and Todd Matthews (11.5 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 4.6 apg) are three vital cogs in the Flames’ rotation and are players the Warriors need to limit. The Warriors had Mitch Creek back against Southern, and it is unlikely the 36ers young-gun will have a repeat of his seven-point effort this week. Zane Reeves (14.4 ppg, 6.9 rpg) and Puff Summers (12.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.5 apg) have been constantly amongst the Warriors’ top performers, while big men Adam Blight and Steve Pilkington have been a presence inside.

The Warriors have a better win-loss ratio on the road than the Flames do at home, and every time it seems like the Warriors are slipping away, they pull one out of the hat and get a vital W. Despite their poor performance last week, this does feel like the sort of game the Warriors will win.

Southern Tigers (5-10, 7th) v West Adelaide Bearcats (10-5, 4th)
Saturday July 21, 8.15pm at Morphett Vale

After possibly derailing the Woodville Warriors’ season, the Southern Tigers have another chance to be giant-killers when they take on the Warriors’ local rivals, the West Adelaide Bearcats.

The Tigers pulled off a stunning 49 point turnaround against the Warriors in Round 15, jumping two places on the ladder into the top seven as a result. Tyler Tanis scored 32 while Michael Florance had 23. It was the Tigers’ first win against a winning team this season, having only previously beaten the Panthers (now 9th) and Mavericks (10th).

The Bearcats blew a great chance to join the Eagles and Sabres in first position, after throwing away a 13 point lead with less than three minutes remaining to lose to North in over-time. Tristan Braithwaite missed a trey that would have sent the game into double-overtime, but the game should have been done and dusted long before then. Howard Salters Jr had 28 points, 8 rebounds and 8 steals, while Blake Truslove (18 rebounds, 15 points) was also prominent.

The Bearcats are now fourth on the ladder and really must win their last three games to be any chance of avoiding an Elimination Final for a second successive year. When they last played the Tigers, Josh Knight had his best game as a Bearcat with 17 points in a 77-58 victory.

The Tigers are starting to roar, and with home court advantage, they are in with a chance of another upset.

By James Woite